Highlights:

• Some indicators point to a heightened risk of recession in the US, but for now inflation remains slightly above target and wages are still expected to rise.

• The global downturn in manufacturing is deepening, although the services sector remains a bright spot, supported by consumer spending.

• UK prime minister Boris Johnson remains hamstrung by the parliament and will continue negotiating the fraught issue of the Irish backstop.

• The Chinese economy is feeling the pinch from the trade war as authorities continue to free up liquidity and increase spending on infrastructure to support growth.

• Given the softness in Australian economic growth and inflation, the RBA is increasingly likely to cut rates a further 25 basis points to 0.50% by early 2020.

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