Volatility in share markets is likely to remain high and further weakness is possible as US inflation and interest rates move up and as issues around President Trump and trade continue to impact ahead of the US mid-term elections in November, but the medium-term trend in share markets is likely to remain up as global recession is unlikely and earnings growth remains strong globally and solid in Australia.
However big U.S. tax cuts, synchronised global growth and strong earnings are battling Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising inflation and protectionist threats. For now, the cycle tailwinds are stronger than the headwinds, but this balance could shift as the Federal Reserve continues to lift U.S. interest rates
We continue to expect the S&P/ASX 200 Index to reach 6300 by end 2018 – it might just take a bit longer to get back on the path up there.
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